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Giving the Presidents What They Want: DC Real Estate

Today we are celebrating a 15% expansion in our geographic breadth: the greater Washington DC area. After waiting for over 1 million photos to download, today we are announcing that we now have over half a million homes listed for sale on Estately. And we are welcoming Washington, DC and Baltimore. Having spent some time there, we will also give a shout-out to beautiful Annapolis and having not spent any time there, we will note that you can now search for homes for sale near Murderland Alley – a street made famous in The Wire.

Whether you are searching for a $39+ million manse (the most expensive home in the greater DC area) or a home in Baltimore (we are serious when we say greater DC area), where the average listing price is $150,000, you browse from any of our new 70,000+ listings with the flick of a mouse or the zoom of a map. I always like using text search to show all the waterfront homes for sale in a new area.

Each listing includes all of our trademark information: local schools with school scores, mass transit information for the Metrorail (Example: homes on the Red Line), past sale prices, past listing prices and much, much more.

With this release, we are also rolling out a host of other improvements:

Google Maps Balloon

We’ve “fixed” the google maps balloon. It used to move the map when you clicked on a home near top of the screen – it always opens north (it still does this on Google maps). It got very annoying when you had to pan back to your search area dozens of times. Now: the balloon is smart – it goes where there is room. We permit Google to integrate this improved (and prettier) user interface improvement into Google Maps.

Before:

Old Google Maps Balloon

After:

New Estately bubble-1

Speed

Every page on Estately now loads at least 50% faster. That’s like the difference between my 1996 Honda Civic (8.4 seconds?) and a Porsche Cayenne.

Before:

Estately - before

After:

Estately Today

Better Navigation

Did you know we cover 6 states? Our home page now makes it easier to navigate straight to those states. Sure, that isn’t really a search improvement per se, but it does make starting a search a one-click experience.

Auto-Suggestions on Search

Also! Our search box is smarter than ever. Start typing in a neighborhood, city, state, or zip code – or even an address or listing number of a home that is for sale – and our box will suggest places and homes that match. Now you don’t have to know how to spell Skokie, Illinois or Dunwoody, Georgia.

Before:

Done Woody

After:
Dunwoody Georgia
And Finally…

Price Drop Search

Once you’re there, check out all the price drops from the last day, two days, week, or even longer with our price drop search. There are a lot of them – even in the Long Beach California (aka, the LBC) (or try: the the LBNY or the one price drop in the LBW. The LBI (that’s Indiana!?!) has had no price drops in the last week. Snoop, do not limit your search to the LBC! With our help, broaden your horizons to the LBOthers!

We’re HIRING!

Help us keep rolling out real estate search goodness by referring your fantastic designer friend. See our ad here and send it on!

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Crystal Ball: 2010 Home Sales Will Surprise – In a Good Way

Some background:

From late summer through October 2009, Uncle Sam offered first-time buyers $8,000 if they bought a home by the end of November. As a country we “brought sales forward” – we convinced people who would otherwise have bought in December or January to buy in November.

It's Exciting!

How Sweet?

When the November numbers were released, the National Association of Realtors and the media feigned surprise that sales were so strong (up 7.4%). (“November home sales leap,” “November existing-home sales surge“).  But it was no surprise. Everyone watching the market knew it was going to happen.

Then in December, existing sales plunged 16.7%, even though the tax credit had been extended. This wasn’t a surprise to anyone watching the industry either. People who wanted to buy did so in November and by the time the extension was announced — just 34 days before it would’ve expired — nearly every person who could’ve used the credit had already made an offer. But “plunged” makes for good headlines.

Our prediction:

We have a crystal ball here at Estately: Home search traffic.

See, before prospective homebuyers apply for mortgages, or choose agents, or go to open houses, they dip their toes in the market by searching for homes on our site. When our traffic spikes, we see spikes in home buying a few months later. And we finally have some good news to report!

2010 will start slow–January sales will be off. (Estately’s partner agents helped a lot of people buy homes this January – many more so than last year – but we’re fairly certain that has more to do with us than the market.)

Sales will be low because people who would have put in an offer that would close this winter already did so in the fall — they wanted that $8,000. (Note: that means less competition if you are buying a home right now.) We also expect low sales for January because we saw soft traffic in November/December.

Spring and summer of 2010 will be different! Every year, there is an annual increase in people searching for real estate from December to January. But this year we are seeing a much bigger bump – 80% bigger.  This year we are seeing 40% more people searching for homes on Estately in January than we were in December. That’s a huge change in homebuyer sentiment.

Home search traffic is a leading indicator: we saw traffic really jump last August – three months before sales jumped in November.  Based on previous annual trends, this dramatically increased interest and traffic will translate to strong home sales this spring and summer.

Regionally, the Big Winners are Chicago, Atlanta, San Diego and Seattle with huge bumps. The rest of California – and especially Sacramento - not so great.

Here is a table ranking the markets we are in:

City Seasonal Bump

Chicago 64%

Atlanta 57%

San Diego 55%

Seattle 55%

Portland 47%

Bay Area 25%

Los Angeles 23%

Long Island 21%

Sacramento 15%
.
Rank City Seasonal Bump
.
1 Chicago 64%
.
2 Atlanta 57%
.
3 San Diego 55%
.
4 Seattle 55%
.
5 Portland 47%
.
6 Bay Area 25%
.
7 Los Angeles 23%
.
8 Long Island 21%
.
9 Sacramento 15%
.

Disclaimer: This is a short-term prediction. I’ve personally been a pessimist about the real estate market since 2004. But back then I jumped the gun, since the market continued to rise for 2 years. And I didn’t quite expect the magnitude of the 2006 correction, either (what a ride!).  Whatever happens in 2010, long term, I believe we’re in a holding pattern for stocks and home prices – there will be upward swings and downward swings. The Case Schiller index seems to show way less room for prices to go down than it did at the peak of the bubble and thankfully homebuilders have virtually stopped building. Mid- to Long-term home prices and sales are stabilizing.

And a nod to the contrary evidence out there is warranted: While Google Trends seem to contradict me (see Seattle Bubble for analysis), I’m skeptical of Google Trends as a measurement tool here – buzz about real estate, home prices, and mortgages can cause “real estate” searches, but browsing homes on an MLS-based search site like Estately means business.

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Profitable

We are celebrating a profitable 3rd quarter at Estately this week and an October already in the black. This in spite of the market’s typical Fall-Winter dive (Google Trends illustrates it elegantly in 2008 and 2009 – so does this) and the worst housing market in my lifetime.

About a year ago, after launching New York and Chicago, we looked at the year ahead and realized that:

  1. The capital markets were hosed – the “raise more” door was closed
  2. There was a chance we weren’t going to make *quite* enough on our existing trajectory to make it into the black

It was time to get creative.

What Did We Do Right?

Get Even Leaner

We looked high and low to find every expense we could cut. We couldn’t save much by cutting the co-founders’ “living wage” (aka “insulting wage”). So we slowed down our geographic expansion because new markets require upfront investment. We also froze technology purchases and skipped a couple of business trips.

Then we set out to improve the bottom line.

Test. Test Again

By last winter, we began A/B testing on a weekly basis. We started by making it easier for anyone who wanted to tour a home on Estately to do so – and increased our “property tour rate” by 200%. The changes we made were significant and are the reason we are successful today. The awesome thing is that we can improve further: Our most recent A/B test improved our conversion rate by over 30%.

1) Introduce Distractions. 2) … 3) Profit!

We chose this route in a very round-about way. We get a lot of inquiries from people who want a white-label Estately, but until this year we considered white labeling to be a potentially fatal distraction. Andy Liu’s story on NetConversions, the company he started right in the midst of the dotcom crash and eventually sold to aQuantive, changed our thinking. During a conversation he probably doesn’t remember, he told me they did “semi-related and pretty-unrelated” side projects to keep the lights after the dotcom crash. We realized we could do that, add some more revenues to the bottom line, and not lose sight of other priorities.

We were lucky enough to find Sutton West Coast, a Vancouver-area real estate brokerage that wanted a world-class real estate search product, but didn’t want to build it in-house. We penned a deal in the spring and we launched Sutton’s Vancouver Real Estate search service early this month. We also worked out an arrangement with Findwell, an awesome Seattle-area brokerage, to power their search.

Our white label deals are only a small part of our revenues. We probably would have been better off financially if we had focused solely on Estately, but we we weren’t in a position to risk some downside for a bigger upside. Regular and predictable revenues from the white label sites reduced the risk of running out of money.

What Can We Do Better?

Our real estate search product is already fantastic, but we know dozens of ways we can improve – and become the de facto real estate search in the markets we operate in. We just need to execute.

World domination

We Forgot To Tell the Story

We haven’t introduced ourselves to people who want to write about us. When we do, we don’t always tell them about our awesome snappy map search, our compelling features like transit-search (think convenient to BART), or the ability to search within a distance of an area (like West Babylon).

We got involved in feature releases and improvements, leaving fantastic new features un-blogged and unmentioned. The most popular feature request was for sales history on every home – a feature we launched without any fanfare in the spring (see it live on this Naperville home). We need to keep people better informed of what we’re doing!

Consumers who have used Estately love it – most of them have just never tried it.

Our Agents are Awesome – But you’d have to ask us to find out

We collect feedback from everyone who interacts with one of our agents and we have aggressively promoted our best agents. Thousands of people have worked with an Estately partner agent and people rave about our agents. There is no sign of this on Estately.

OK, we got a little distracted

We launched with what was hands-down the best search interface in the industry, but we’ve been working on so many new features and projects that we have occasionally lost sight of the core mission: search. User interface, speed and data accuracy are what have kept consumers coming back to us – we need to keep it that way.

What is next?

Seeing the end of your “runway” lengthen and eventually disappear into the horizon is liberating.

This winter will see us back on the road – expanding into new territories – and, more importantly, back to our product-development, user interface-obsessed roots. We’re taking Estately from being very useful to indispensable for people searching for a home.

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Top Real Estate Blog Index – June ’08

June saw some big movers in the Real Estate Blog Index. The Phoenix Real Estate Guy leaped three slots to #1, pushing Agent Genius and Bloodhound Blog into 3rd and 4th place. (Lesson: don’t mess with Jay when he makes a goal).

Tucson Real Estate Blog and Seattle Condo Blog entered the top 20, pushing San Diego Home Blog and Long Beach Real Estate out of the top 20.

Big movers included miOaklandCounty which jumped 19-spots into #25 and the Twin Cities Real Estate Blog jumped 11 spots to 34.

Here are the top 5:

Rank Change Blog Name Compete Alexa RE Blog Score
1 +3 Phoenix Real Estate Guy 46,174 49,164 33,257
2 +1 The Real Estate Bloggers 46,617 111,057 27,811
3 -1 Agent Genius 35,622 54,165 27,042
4 -3 Bloodhound Blog 28,688 48,315 24,693
5 0 Rain City Guide 24,136 145,944 15,494

Click on through to see the rest of the Top Real Estate Blogs

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Estately is Heading Down the Atlanta Highway, Helping You Find a Love Getaway

We may have been quiet for a while, but are proud to announce that we’ve got Georgia on our mind here at Estately. Today’s addition of over 127,000 greater Atlanta-area listings has increased the total number of homes and condos for sale on Estately.com to almost 460,000!

Whether you’re searching for a $14 million-plus Buckhead-area French Chateau (the most expensive home for sale in Georgia) or one of the nearly 1,800 foreclosed properties on the market in Fulton County, Estately’s got you covered. Our interactive map search will help you sort through the 71 streets, drives, and avenues with the name “Peachtree” in Georgia  (see our 2,811 properties featuring “Peachtree” here), and each listing includes all of our trademark features: local schools with school scores, mass transit information, past sale prices, past listing prices and much, much more.

Deep Atlanta discussion topics for you, directly from Estately’s headquarters:

While we debate these questions, go ahead and poke around our Atlanta homes for sale today.

Y’all have a good time now, ya hear?

Didn’t catch the reference in the title? Shame on you.

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